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  • Công bố khoa học và công nghệ Việt Nam

37.23.29; 68.05.37

Mai Hạnh Nguyên, Trần Văn Thuỵ, Võ Tử Can, Mai Văn Trịnh, Trần Văn Thụy(1)

Dự báo diện tích đất nông nghiệp bị khô hạn do tác động của biến đổi khí hậu vùng duyên hải nam trung bộ

Prediction of drought agricultural land area due to the impact of climate change in the coastal region of South central of Vietnam

Nông nghiệp & Phát triển Nông thôn

2015

18

33-41

1859-4581

Climate change have manifested temperature increase causing much impact on the usage of agricultural land, in which, drought is one of the limiting factors and becoming more severe. The South Central Coast has the natural area of 4,437,653 ha, agricultural land accounts for over 76 percent o~ the natural area. Characteristics of regional climate with two seasons in the year, the rainy season and dry season, in the dry months from May to August, some areas like Ninh Thuan, Binh Thuan often faced with prolonged drought Currently drought land area of the region occupies a significant area of agricultural land (1,160,306 hectares, accounting for 34.21 percent) and forecast to be increased due to the effects of climate change in 2020 is 1,360,745 ha, in 2030 is 1,366,519 ha, in 2050 is 1,489,193 ha. Of which, drought forest larld area is increased the most and forecasted is 1,014,962 ha in 2050 (an increase of 62,689 hectares in comparation with the year 2030 and 191,551 hectares in comparation with the present). Drought agricultural land area (including annual crops and perennial crops) is forecasted to be increased 469,300 ha in 2050 (increase 58,393 hectares in comparation with the year 2030 and 135,250 hectares in comparation with the present). Drought index was calculated based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and forecasting for drought agricultural land area due to the impact of climate change for the South Central Coast This is a really necessary research, proposing solutions for the management and sustainable land use, adaptating to climate change.

TTKHCNQG, CVv201