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  • Công bố khoa học và công nghệ Việt Nam

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Lê Thị Thúy Hằng(1)

Tác động bất cân xứng của tự do hóa tài chỉnh đổi với tăng trưởng kinh tế tại Việt Nam

Disproportionate impact of financial liberalization on economic growth in Vietnam

Tạp chí Nghiên cứu Kinh tế và Kinh doanh Châu Á (Trường Đại học Kinh tế Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh)

2022

1

5-26

2615-9104

Tự do hóa tài chính, Tăng trưởng kinh tế, NARDL, Tác động, Bất cân xứng

Financial liberalization, Economic growth, NARDL, Viet Nam

Bài viết này nghiên cứu tác động của tự do hóa tài chính đến tăng trưởng kinh tế tại Việt Nam, bằng cách sử dụng dữ liệu chuỗi thời gian trong giai đoạn từ quý 1 năm 2000 đến quý 1 năm 2020. Mô hình NARDL được sử dụng để xem xét tác động bất cân xứng của các biến tăng trưởng cung tiền mở rộng, lãi suất cho vay và tỷ giá USD/VND đến tăng trưởng kinh tế của Việt Nam. Kết quả của nghiên cứu này chỉ ra tác động cân bằng ngắn hạn và dài hạn chung giữa tự do hóa tài chính và tăng trưởng kinh tế. Tác động của tự do hóa tài chính đối với tăng trưởng kinh tế ghi nhận những hiệu ứng tích cực và những hiệu ứng tiêu cực đối với tăng trưởng kinh tế. Các khuyến nghị chính sách đối với Việt Nam bao gồm tự do hóa tài chính theo lộ trình và chú trọng đến các chính sách điều hành thị trường tài chính được đề xuất.

 

This paper studies the impact of financial liberalization on economic growth in Vietnam, using time series data for the period f-rom Ql/2000 to Ql/2020. The NARDL model is used to examine the disproportionate impact of the expansionary money supply growth variables, lending interest rates and USD/VND exchange rate on Vietnam's economic growth. The results of this study indicate a general short-run and long run equilibrium effect between financial liberalization and economic growth. The impact of financial liberalization on economic growth has recorded positive effects and negative effects on economic growth. Policy recommendations for Vietnam include financial liberalization according to the roadmap and focus on proposed financial market management policies.

TTKHCNQG, CVv 486

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